Identifying spatial invasion of pandemics on metapopulation networks via anatomizing arrival history

Spatial spread of infectious diseases among populations via the mobility of humans is highly stochastic and heterogeneous. Accurate forecast/mining of the spread process is often hard to be achieved by using statistical or mechanical models. Here we propose a new reverse problem, which aims to identify the stochastically spatial spread process itself from observable information regarding the arrival history of infectious cases in each subpopulation. We solved the problem by developing an efficient optimization algorithm based on dynamical programming, which comprises three procedures: i, anatomizing the whole spread process among all subpopulations into disjoint componential patches; ii, inferring the most probable invasion pathways underlying each patch via maximum likelihood estimation; iii, recovering the whole process by assembling the invasion pathways in each patch iteratively, without burdens in parameter calibrations and computer simulations. Based on the entropy theory, we introduced an identifiability measure to assess the difficulty level that an invasion pathway can be identified. Results on both artificial and empirical metapopulation networks show the robust performance in identifying actual invasion pathways driving pandemic spread.Comment: 14pages, 8 figures; Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Cybernetic

The progenitors of Type Ia supernovae with long delay times

The nature of the progenitors of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) is still unclear. In this paper, by considering the effect of the instability of accretion disk on the evolution of white dwarf (WD) binaries, we performed binary evolution calculations for about 2400 close WD binaries, in which a carbon--oxygen WD accretes material from a main-sequence star or a slightly evolved subgiant star (WD + MS channel), or a red-giant star (WD + RG channel) to increase its mass to the Chandrasekhar (Ch) mass limit. According to these calculations, we mapped out the initial parameters for SNe Ia in the orbital period--secondary mass ($\log P^{\rm i}-M^{\rm i}_2$) plane for various WD masses for these two channels, respectively. We confirm that WDs in the WD + MS channel with a mass as low as $0.61 M_\odot$ can accrete efficiently and reach the Ch limit, while the lowest WD mass for the WD + RG channel is $1.0 \rm M_\odot$. We have implemented these results in a binary population synthesis study to obtain the SN Ia birthrates and the evolution of SN Ia birthrates with time for both a constant star formation rate and a single starburst. We find that the Galactic SN Ia birthrate from the WD + MS channel is $\sim$$1.8\times 10^{-3} {\rm yr}^{-1}$ according to our standard model, which is higher than previous results. However, similar to previous studies, the birthrate from the WD + RG channel is still low ($\sim$$3\times 10^{-5} {\rm yr}^{-1}$). We also find that about one third of SNe Ia from the WD + MS channel and all SNe Ia from the WD + RG channel can contribute to the old populations (\ga1 Gyr) of SN Ia progenitors.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in MNRA